{"id":121255,"date":"2024-04-02T00:36:03","date_gmt":"2024-04-02T06:36:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com.mx\/?p=121255"},"modified":"2024-04-02T00:36:21","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T06:36:21","slug":"massive-caller","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=121255","title":{"rendered":"MASSIVE CALLER"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jos\u00e9 Luis Ortega Vidal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claroscuros<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(1)
De acuerdo a la empresa Massive Caller la diferencia entre Roc\u00edo Nahle Garc\u00eda y Jos\u00e9 Yunes Zorrilla, al inicio de su campa\u00f1a este domingo 31 de marzo, es de un d\u00edgito: 9.2 puntos.
El n\u00famero es resultado de su \u00faltima encuesta realizada el pasado s\u00e1bado 30 de marzo, a mil personas y con un margen de error de +\/- 3 %.
Roc\u00edo Nahle Garc\u00eda de la coalici\u00f3n Seguimos Haciendo Historia, de MORENA\/PT\/PVEM, obtuvo 42.7 % de potenciales votos.
Jos\u00e9 Yunes Zorrilla de la coalici\u00f3n Fuerza y Coraz\u00f3n por Veracruz, de PRI\/PAN\/PRD, obtuvo 33.5 % de potenciales votos.
La de Massive Caller no es la \u00fanica encuesta realizada el mes de marzo, pero es la \u00fanica aplicada un d\u00eda antes del inicio de campa\u00f1a, que se haya dado a conocer al momento\u2026
Veremos el resultado de otras empresas abocadas a estudios demosc\u00f3picos durante los pr\u00f3ximos d\u00edas y semanas en un contexto espec\u00edfico: el de la campa\u00f1a que dio inicio el domingo pasado y concluye el 27 de mayo.
Ya no hay vuelta atr\u00e1s; ya no estamos -los electores- frente a pre-precampa\u00f1as, precampa\u00f1as e intercampa\u00f1as; ahora s\u00ed hay competencia y una empresa con margen de credibilidad ha puesto el resultado de su encuesta al momento del arranque.
En la lucha por la gubernatura veracruzana la tendencia es hacia una lucha cerrada, de acuerdo a Massive Caller.
S\u00f3lo resta observar si esta condici\u00f3n contin\u00faa o no, y en funci\u00f3n de ello aguardar por el resultado de los comicios el 2 de junio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(2)
Ayer, la misma empresa Massive Caller hizo p\u00fablico el resultado de 300 encuestas en igual n\u00famero de distritos electorales del pa\u00eds.
Se pregunt\u00f3 caso por caso, a qui\u00e9n prefieren los electores como su pr\u00f3ximo diputado federal.
El tema es clave desde varios \u00e1ngulos; el m\u00e1s importante de todos: prever si la pr\u00f3xima presidenta de la Rep\u00fablica -Claudia Sheinbaum o X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez- contar\u00e1 con el respaldo de una mayor\u00eda calificada en la C\u00e1mara Baja del Congreso de la Uni\u00f3n.
De acuerdo a Massive Caller no habr\u00e1 mayor\u00eda calificada para ninguna de las coaliciones e incluso se corre el riesgo de que nadie cuente con mayor\u00eda absoluta.
Van los n\u00fameros:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En la composici\u00f3n de la C\u00e1mara de Diputados con curules uninominales, MORENA, PT y PVEM obtendr\u00edan el 54.3 %, es decir 161 diputados; mientras que el PAN, PRI, PRD, alcanzar\u00edan el 41.7 %, es decir 125 diputaciones; mientras que al MC le corresponde el 4 %, equivalente a 12 diputados.
Ahora bien, en la composici\u00f3n camaral con la suma de curules plurinominales, MORENA, PT y PVEM alcanzar\u00edan el 51.8 %, es decir 259 legisladores; mientras que al PAN, PRI, PRD, les tocar\u00edan 43.2 %, equivalentes a 216 posiciones; y al MC tendr\u00eda 5 %, con 25 diputados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(3)
Se trata de un ejercicio hipot\u00e9tico; producto de una encuesta cuyo resultado podr\u00e1 modificarse en el transcurso de los d\u00edas y aun llegada la jornada electoral.
Ahora bien, de generarse un resultado final cercano a esta hip\u00f3tesis, las reformas constitucionales necesarias para establecer el llamado segundo piso de la 4T o cuarta transformaci\u00f3n, no ser\u00edan posibles pues la Constituci\u00f3n exige dos terceras partes, esto es 334 votos -m\u00ednimo- para ser modificada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 Luis Ortega Vidal Claroscuros (1)De acuerdo a la empresa Massive Caller la diferencia entre Roc\u00edo Nahle Garc\u00eda y Jos\u00e9 Yunes Zorrilla, al inicio de su campa\u00f1a este domingo 31 de marzo, es de un d\u00edgito: 9.2 puntos.El n\u00famero es resultado de su \u00faltima encuesta realizada el pasado s\u00e1bado 30 de marzo, a mil personas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[18195,1026,570,3578,195],"class_list":{"0":"post-121255","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-massive-caller","9":"tag-morena","10":"tag-pepe-yunes","11":"tag-rocio-nahle","12":"tag-veracruz"},"yoast_head":"\nMASSIVE CALLER - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=121255\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MASSIVE CALLER - 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