{"id":150538,"date":"2025-08-12T21:56:46","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T02:56:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com.mx\/?p=150538"},"modified":"2025-08-12T21:56:55","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T02:56:55","slug":"efecto-de-los-aranceles-impuestos-por-eua-a-mexico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=150538","title":{"rendered":"EFECTO DE LOS ARANCELES IMPUESTOS POR EUA A M\u00c9XICO"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n


Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo<\/strong>*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impronta<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 2025, debido a los aranceles impuestos por Estados Unidos a M\u00e9xico<\/strong>, se podr\u00edan perder hasta 300,000 empleos<\/strong> en sectores intensivos en exportaciones, como la manufactura<\/strong>, log\u00edstica<\/strong> y transporte<\/strong>. Esta p\u00e9rdida de empleos se relaciona con la reducci\u00f3n en la producci\u00f3n y competitividad de las empresas mexicanas afectadas por los grav\u00e1menes arancelarios, lo que impacta directamente a miles de trabajadores en estos sectores clave de la econom\u00eda mexicana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los aranceles<\/strong> impuestos por Estados Unidos<\/strong> a M\u00e9xico<\/strong> desde el 7 de agosto de 2025 tendr\u00e1n un impacto econ\u00f3mico negativo significativo, seg\u00fan reportes de la Organizaci\u00f3n Mundial de Comercio (OMC)<\/strong> y otros an\u00e1lisis especializados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En cuanto al Producto Interno Bruto (PIB)<\/strong> de M\u00e9xico, se estima que la imposici\u00f3n de aranceles del 25% al 30%<\/strong> podr\u00eda provocar una ca\u00edda en el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de entre -0.8% a -1.5%<\/strong> para 2025, dependiendo de la magnitud y duraci\u00f3n de los grav\u00e1menes. Algunas proyecciones se\u00f1alan que podr\u00eda incluso llegar a una contracci\u00f3n cercana al 1.2% del PIB<\/strong> en 2025, complicando el panorama econ\u00f3mico del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las exportaciones mexicanas<\/strong> se ver\u00e1n afectadas porque Estados Unidos<\/strong> es el principal socio comercial de M\u00e9xico<\/strong>, destin\u00e1ndose hacia all\u00e1 aproximadamente el 83%<\/strong> de sus exportaciones. Se espera una reducci\u00f3n en el volumen exportado hacia EE.UU.<\/strong>, con posible ca\u00edda de hasta un 12.6%<\/strong> en exportaciones en Am\u00e9rica del Norte<\/strong>, lo que impacta directamente a la industria manufacturera<\/strong> y otros sectores relacionados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sobre el mercado laboral, los aranceles<\/strong> podr\u00edan ocasionar la p\u00e9rdida de hasta 300,000 empleos<\/strong> en sectores intensivos en exportaciones, como la manufactura<\/strong>, log\u00edstica<\/strong> y transporte<\/strong>. Este efecto se debe a la reducci\u00f3n en producci\u00f3n y competitividad, afectando directamente a miles de trabajadores en M\u00e9xico<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estos impactos tambi\u00e9n se reflejan en la depreciaci\u00f3n del peso mexicano<\/strong> y en aumento de la inflaci\u00f3n<\/strong> debido a mayores costos de importaci\u00f3n y producci\u00f3n, lo que reduce el poder adquisitivo de las familias mexicanas y a\u00f1ade incertidumbre a la inversi\u00f3n y crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En s\u00edntesis, la OMC<\/strong> y an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3micos coinciden en que los aranceles<\/strong> aplicados por Estados Unidos<\/strong> a M\u00e9xico<\/strong> a partir de agosto de 2025 afectar\u00e1n negativamente al PIB<\/strong> mexicano, reducir\u00e1n las exportaciones<\/strong> hacia EE.UU.<\/strong> y provocar\u00e1n p\u00e9rdidas significativas de empleo, principalmente en la manufactura<\/strong>, con riesgos agregados para la estabilidad econ\u00f3mica y social del pa\u00eds en el mediano plazo. Las tensiones comerciales mantienen incertidumbre sobre el futuro desarrollo econ\u00f3mico de M\u00e9xico<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seg\u00fan la Organizaci\u00f3n para la Cooperaci\u00f3n y el Desarrollo Econ\u00f3mico (OCDE)<\/strong>, la reducci\u00f3n exacta o m\u00e1s bien el crecimiento proyectado del PIB<\/strong> de M\u00e9xico<\/strong> para 2025 ser\u00e1 de solo 0.4%<\/strong>. Esto representa un ajuste a la baja respecto a pron\u00f3sticos anteriores que incluso contemplaban una recesi\u00f3n, con ca\u00eddas previstas de hasta -1.3%<\/strong>. La OCDE<\/strong> prev\u00e9 as\u00ed una desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica significativa, aunque ya no una contracci\u00f3n formal del PIB<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este crecimiento del 0.4%<\/strong> para 2025 se debe principalmente al impacto de los aranceles<\/strong> impuestos por Estados Unidos<\/strong> desde agosto de 2025, as\u00ed como a la incertidumbre comercial y un entorno econ\u00f3mico global debilitado. Sin embargo, la OCDE<\/strong> mantiene que M\u00e9xico<\/strong> evitar\u00e1 una recesi\u00f3n gracias a la inversi\u00f3n impulsada por la disminuci\u00f3n de las tasas de inter\u00e9s, aunque el crecimiento ser\u00e1 modesto y menor al de otros pa\u00edses de Am\u00e9rica Latina<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para concluir, seg\u00fan la OCDE<\/strong>, el PIB<\/strong> de M\u00e9xico<\/strong> en 2025 crecer\u00e1 \u00fanicamente un 0.4%<\/strong>, indicando un impacto econ\u00f3mico negativo claro pero sin llegar a la contracci\u00f3n que se tem\u00eda inicialmente. Incluso hay el pron\u00f3stico de analistas econ\u00f3micos de prestigio de que lo peor estar\u00eda por venir en el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comente u opine a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

cacostabravo@yahoo.com.mx<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Maestro en comunicaci\u00f3n por la Universidad Iberoamericana<\/strong>, de la cual form\u00f3 parte del cuerpo acad\u00e9mico de la Licenciatura en Comunicaci\u00f3n, as\u00ed como de la Universidad An\u00e1huac<\/strong>, campus norte de CDMX<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo* Impronta En 2025, debido a los aranceles impuestos por Estados Unidos a M\u00e9xico, se podr\u00edan perder hasta 300,000 empleos en sectores intensivos en exportaciones, como la manufactura, log\u00edstica y transporte. Esta p\u00e9rdida de empleos se relaciona con la reducci\u00f3n en la producci\u00f3n y competitividad de las empresas mexicanas afectadas por los grav\u00e1menes arancelarios, lo que impacta directamente a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":141377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[1103,17781,45139],"class_list":{"0":"post-150538","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-ocde","9":"tag-perdida-de-empleos","10":"tag-pib-mexico-2025"},"yoast_head":"\nEFECTO DE LOS ARANCELES IMPUESTOS POR EUA A M\u00c9XICO - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=150538\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EFECTO DE LOS ARANCELES IMPUESTOS POR EUA A M\u00c9XICO - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo* Impronta En 2025, debido a los aranceles impuestos por Estados Unidos a M\u00e9xico, se podr\u00edan perder hasta 300,000 empleos en sectores intensivos en exportaciones, como la manufactura, log\u00edstica y transporte. 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