{"id":159907,"date":"2026-01-08T21:20:25","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T03:20:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=159907"},"modified":"2026-01-08T21:20:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T03:20:26","slug":"impacto-en-pensiones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=159907","title":{"rendered":"IMPACTO EN PENSIONES"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

S\u00edguenos ahora tambi\u00e9n en WhatsApp.\u00a0\u00a1Da clic aqu\u00ed<\/strong><\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo*
<\/strong>Impronta<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al cierre de 2025, el gasto total en pensiones en M\u00e9xico alcanz\u00f3 aproximadamente 2.3 billones de pesos, con pensiones contributivas representando 18% del presupuesto p\u00fablico federal (alrededor de 1.8 billones de pesos) y no contributivas cerca del 6.13% (unos 556 mil millones de pesos). Esto equivale a cerca del 24% del gasto total programable, presionando las finanzas al crecer 8.7% real versus 2.3% de ingresos p\u00fablicos. Lo cual evidencia la presi\u00f3n que ejerce sobre las recursos p\u00fablicos del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n


El impacto de las pensiones contributivas por concepto de aportaciones de trabajadores del IMSS y del ISSSTE ascendi\u00f3 a 1.8 billones de pesos, lo cual representa el 18% del presupuesto federal, mientras que las no contributivas (las de programas sociales) ascendieron a .556 billones de pesos lo cual significa 6.13% del total del presupuesto federal. Para tratar de ilustrarlo amigo lector uno de cada seis pesos de ingresos del gobierno mexicano van directamente al sistema de pensiones.
Para 2026, el pron\u00f3stico es de 2.32 billones de pesos totales (contributivas 1.704 billones, no contributivas 0.62 billones con +13.5%), absorbiendo m\u00e1s del 20% del presupuesto y 6% del PIB. El impacto incluye recortes reales del 2.3-2.5% en IMSS\/ISSSTE por envejecimiento poblacional y expansi\u00f3n de programas sociales, limitando e impidiendo de esta manera la inversi\u00f3n en educaci\u00f3n, salud y seguridad. Esto genera riesgo fiscal sostenido sin reformas a ingresos o sistema pensionario.
Los recortes presupuestales reales del 2.5% al IMSS y 2.3% al ISSSTE en 2026, primeros desde 2018, afectar\u00e1n directamente a millones de jubilados y pensionados contributivos al reducir su poder adquisitivo en un contexto de inflaci\u00f3n proyectada en 3.7-4%. Este ajuste responde a presiones fiscales por envejecimiento poblacional, aumento del padr\u00f3n de beneficiarios y priorizaci\u00f3n de pensiones no contributivas de Bienestar (+13.5%).\u200b
El impacto en pensionados comprende el gasto total en pensiones contributivas, pues se contrae pese a un padr\u00f3n creciente (IMSS: +6.6% real en 2025), impactando la adquisici\u00f3n de bienes b\u00e1sicos y elevando riesgo de pobreza entre 5-6 millones de derechohabientes. Jubilados percibir\u00e1n montos estancados o menores en t\u00e9rminos reales, exacerbando desigualdades versus programas universales que s\u00ed suben (ej. adultos mayores +5.2%).\u200b
Los efectos macroecon\u00f3micos por el recorte son amplias, pues libera recursos para subsidios sociales (2.3 billones totales en pensiones, 6% PIB), pero limita espacio fiscal para inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica en salud e infraestructura, con gasto en pensiones absorbiendo un porcentaje superior al 20% del presupuesto. Analistas del CIEP advierten sostenibilidad insostenible sin reformas, potencialmente incrementando deuda o impuestos futuros.\u200b
Las medidas compensatorias no prev\u00e9n ajustes nominales extras para contrarrestar inflaci\u00f3n; el foco est\u00e1 en expansi\u00f3n de Bienestar (619 mil mdp), dejando a contributivos desprotegidos pese a cotizaciones hist\u00f3ricas. Esto podr\u00eda generar protestas y demandas judiciales por afectaci\u00f3n a derechos adquiridos.
De hecho la primer medida para tratar de paliar este problema estructural para las finanzas p\u00fablicas en 2026 iniciar\u00e1 la homologaci\u00f3n del sistema m\u00e9dico para todos los derechohabientes de los dos organismos que atienden las pensiones contributivas: el IMSS y el ISSSTE, por lo que es muy posible que en breve comience la integraci\u00f3n del sistema pensionario de estos dos organismos y quiz\u00e1s tambi\u00e9n se integren a futuro en uno solo con las pensiones no contributivas, es decir todas aquellas que otorga el gobierno mexicano por conducto de programas sociales. Esperemos cu\u00e1l ser\u00e1 la respuesta de los trabajadores y de los grandes sindicatos de bur\u00f3cratas, principalmente federales.
Comente u opine a:
cacostabravo@yahoo.com.mx<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Maestro en comunicaci\u00f3n por la Universidad Iberoamericana, de la cual form\u00f3 parte del cuerpo acad\u00e9mico de la Licenciatura en comunicaci\u00f3n, as\u00ed como de la Universidad An\u00e1huac, camp\u00fas norte de CDMX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo*Impronta Al cierre de 2025, el gasto total en pensiones en M\u00e9xico alcanz\u00f3 aproximadamente 2.3 billones de pesos, con pensiones contributivas representando 18% del presupuesto p\u00fablico federal (alrededor de 1.8 billones de pesos) y no contributivas cerca del 6.13% (unos 556 mil millones de pesos). Esto equivale a cerca del 24% del […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":141377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[49024,49217,49218,49214,49219,49215,49216],"class_list":{"0":"post-159907","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-carlos-miguel-acosta-bravo-impronta","9":"tag-crisis-sistema-pensiones-imss-issste","10":"tag-gasto-en-pensiones-mexico-2026","11":"tag-pensiones-contributivas-vs-no-contributivas","12":"tag-recortes-presupuestales-imss-issste-2026","13":"tag-riesgo-fiscal-pensiones-mexico-2026","14":"tag-sostenibilidad-financiera-programas-sociales-mexico"},"yoast_head":"\nIMPACTO EN PENSIONES - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=159907\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IMPACTO EN PENSIONES - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo*Impronta Al cierre de 2025, el gasto total en pensiones en M\u00e9xico alcanz\u00f3 aproximadamente 2.3 billones de pesos, con pensiones contributivas representando 18% del presupuesto p\u00fablico federal (alrededor de 1.8 billones de pesos) y no contributivas cerca del 6.13% (unos 556 mil millones de pesos). 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