{"id":164854,"date":"2026-03-02T22:47:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T04:47:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=164854"},"modified":"2026-03-02T22:49:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T04:49:19","slug":"impacto-de-la-guerra-eu-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=164854","title":{"rendered":"IMPACTO DE LA GUERRA EU-IR\u00c1N"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo<\/strong>
Impronta<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La guerra entre Estados Unidos e Israel contra Ir\u00e1n, que escal\u00f3 el 28 de febrero de 2026 con ataques a\u00e9reos coordinados contra Teher\u00e1n y otras ciudades (incluyendo la muerte confirmada del ayatol\u00e1 Jamenei), genera un shock de oferta en petr\u00f3leo por disrupciones en el Estrecho de Ormuz y exportaciones iran\u00edes, elevando precios globales del crudo de 8 a 13% iniciales y presionando la econom\u00eda mexicana v\u00eda importaciones de combustibles. Esto impacta el tipo de cambio (peso m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil), inflaci\u00f3n y crecimiento, en un reacomodo geopol\u00edtico que favorece a productores como M\u00e9xico a corto plazo pero eleva riesgos globales de recesi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El impacto en petr\u00f3leo y econom\u00eda mexicana ha significado hasta el momento shock en oferta petrolera, pues Ir\u00e1n que es el 4\u00b0 productor OPEPcon 3.2 millones de barriles diarios ya redujo exportaciones de un 20 a 30%. Adem\u00e1s est\u00e1 vigente la amenaza de cierre del Estrecho de Ormuz por el cual circula el 20% del comercio mar\u00edtimo global de crudo, lo cual podr\u00eda elevar precios desde 90 a 120 d\u00f3lares por barril, con el petr\u00f3leo Brent saltando un 10% de manera inicial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los efectos directos para M\u00e9xico, sus ingresos positivos. Las exportaciones petroleras de 1.6 millones de barriles diarios generan un incremento adicional de 10 a 15 mil millones de d\u00f3lares extra si el crudo promedia 85 a 100 d\u00f3lares, impulsando las finanzas p\u00fablicas que actualmente representan el 35% de ingresos federales de hidrocarburos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los costos negativos podr\u00edan traducirse con la consideraci\u00f3n de que M\u00e9xico importa hasta el 70% de gasolina y di\u00e9sel por hasta 500 mil barriles por d\u00eda ; lo cua podr\u00eda representar un alza de 10 d\u00f3larespor barril. En consecuencia podr\u00eda sumarse una cifra acumulada de 5 a 8 mil millones anuales a subsidios , que actualmente ascienden a 300 mil millones de pesos, presionando de esta manera un d\u00e9ficit fiscal hasta por el 5.5% PIB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En materia de crecimiento e inflaci\u00f3n, el PIB pierde 0.3 a 0.5 puntos por costos energ\u00e9ticos por transporte y manufactura: La inflaci\u00f3n podr\u00eda subir0.5 hasta 1 punto (a 4.5\u20135%), forzando al Banco de M\u00e9xico a pausar recortes de tasas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica global est\u00e1 propiciando un nuevo reacomodo mundial, la OPEPrespondi\u00f3  con el anunci\u00f3 de que Arabia Saudita y Rusia podr\u00edan elevar producci\u00f3n en m\u00e1s de 2 millones de barriles diarios, lo cual podr\u00eda moderar los precios, en consecuencia M\u00e9xico gana en cuota pero pierde en subsidios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Existe tambi\u00e9n el riesgo de una recesi\u00f3n, EE.UU. que es un aliado clave distrae recursos militares y econ\u00f3micos. Las cadenas globales con semiconductores y autos, podr\u00edan sufrir si China entra indirectamente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se ha puesto al Nearshoring en jaque, los inversionistas pausan M\u00e9xico por \u201criesgo energ\u00e9tico\u201d , hay que tener presente que Pemex exporta a EE.UU., con una inversi\u00f3n extranjera directa que de manera autom\u00e1tica ha sido recortada en 2026 de un 10 al 15%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las oportunidades para M\u00e9xico, la neutralidad diplom\u00e1tica que no condena ataques y que actualmente con un crudo barato para refiner\u00edas, lo posicionan como proveedor estable, pero inflaci\u00f3n y d\u00f3lar fuerte erosionan la competitividad exportadora.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En s\u00edntesis, la guerra para M\u00e9xico es  negativa en el corto plazo  y podr\u00eda representar una inflaci\u00f3n de entre 3 a 5 puntos, podr\u00eda tambi\u00e9n representar que PIB  disminuya – 0.5%, y que el peso se incremente hasta 21 pesos por USD, con ganancia fiscal petrolera compensatoria pero insuficiente; reacomodo geopol\u00edtico favorece a productores OPEP pero eleva riesgos globales, forzando a Banxico\/SHCP a intervenciones (swaps, subastas). La duraci\u00f3n clave radica si es menor de 4 semanas por decisi\u00f3n del presidente estadounidense Donald Trump, significando un impacto transitorio; y si es prolongada podr\u00eda acrecentarse  la recesi\u00f3n mexicana en  2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carlos Miguel Acosta BravoImpronta La guerra entre Estados Unidos e Israel contra Ir\u00e1n, que escal\u00f3 el 28 de febrero de 2026 con ataques a\u00e9reos coordinados contra Teher\u00e1n y otras ciudades (incluyendo la muerte confirmada del ayatol\u00e1 Jamenei), genera un shock de oferta en petr\u00f3leo por disrupciones en el Estrecho de Ormuz y exportaciones iran\u00edes, elevando […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":141377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[123,14260,32320,395,2019],"class_list":{"0":"post-164854","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-estados-unidos","9":"tag-guerra","10":"tag-iran","11":"tag-mexico","12":"tag-petroleo"},"yoast_head":"\nIMPACTO DE LA GUERRA EU-IR\u00c1N - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=164854\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IMPACTO DE LA GUERRA EU-IR\u00c1N - 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