{"id":169026,"date":"2026-04-17T01:53:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T07:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=169026"},"modified":"2026-04-17T05:12:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T11:12:31","slug":"gasolina-subsidiada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=169026","title":{"rendered":"GASOLINA SUBSIDIADA"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo<\/strong>
Impronta<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En M\u00e9xico, el precio de la gasolina no solo se decide en los mercados internacionales, sino tambi\u00e9n en el escritorio del gobierno. El subsidio a los combustibles \u2014particularmente a la gasolina y el di\u00e9sel\u2014 se ha convertido en una herramienta clave para contener presiones econ\u00f3micas. Sin embargo, detr\u00e1s de este alivio inmediato se esconde una pregunta inc\u00f3moda, \u00bfcu\u00e1nto tiempo puede sostenerse?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La respuesta exige mirar m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del precio en la bomba y entender tres elementos fundamentales: su costo fiscal, sus beneficios econ\u00f3micos y sus l\u00edmites estructurales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El primer dato es contundente. El subsidio funciona reduciendo o eliminando el IEPS, lo que en t\u00e9rminos simples significa que el gobierno deja de recaudar ingresos. No es un gasto visible, pero s\u00ed un ingreso perdido. De acuerdo con cifras oficiales, este mecanismo puede costar hasta 5 mil millones de pesos por semana. Si se mantuviera de forma continua durante un a\u00f1o, estar\u00edamos hablando de alrededor de 260 mil millones de pesos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En ese contexto, la estimaci\u00f3n de BBVA \u2014que calcula un impacto de 38 mil millones de pesos\u2014 no es contradictoria, sino parcial. Refleja escenarios de corto plazo o momentos espec\u00edficos de precios elevados, no el costo total de sostener el subsidio de manera prolongada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pero ser\u00eda simplista reducir el an\u00e1lisis \u00fanicamente al costo. El subsidio cumple una funci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica clara, contener la inflaci\u00f3n. Sin este apoyo, el precio de la gasolina podr\u00eda superar f\u00e1cilmente los 30 pesos por litro, encareciendo el transporte, los alimentos y pr\u00e1cticamente toda la cadena log\u00edstica del pa\u00eds. En ese sentido, el subsidio act\u00faa como un amortiguador que evita que los choques externos \u2014como el alza del petr\u00f3leo\u2014 se trasladen de forma directa al bolsillo de los ciudadanos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aqu\u00ed entra un elemento estrat\u00e9gico poco discutido, el papel del di\u00e9sel. A diferencia de la gasolina, cuyo impacto es m\u00e1s visible para el consumidor individual, el di\u00e9sel sostiene m\u00e1s del 80% del transporte de carga. Por ello, el gobierno ha concentrado en este combustible una parte significativa del apoyo, con subsidios que pueden alcanzar hasta el 80% del IEPS. No se trata solo de contener precios, sino de proteger el funcionamiento de la econom\u00eda productiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, el subsidio no es una pol\u00edtica aislada ni autom\u00e1tica. Su continuidad depende de tres variables clave. La primera, y m\u00e1s determinante, es el precio internacional del petr\u00f3leo. Mientras se mantenga en niveles altos \u2014como los actuales, cercanos a los 100 o 110 d\u00f3lares por barril\u2014, la presi\u00f3n para sostener el subsidio ser\u00e1 constante. Si el precio baja, el margen de maniobra se ampl\u00eda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La segunda variable es el espacio fiscal. Cada peso que el gobierno deja de recaudar por el IEPS es un peso menos para gasto social, inversi\u00f3n o reducci\u00f3n de deuda. En el corto plazo, esta p\u00e9rdida puede absorberse. En el mediano plazo, comienza a generar tensiones. Y en el largo plazo, se vuelve insostenible sin ajustes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La tercera variable es pol\u00edtica. El subsidio no solo responde a criterios econ\u00f3micos, sino tambi\u00e9n a la necesidad de evitar aumentos abruptos en los precios \u2014los llamados \u201cgasolinazos\u201d\u2014 y de mantener estabilidad social. En ese sentido, su permanencia tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1 vinculada al costo pol\u00edtico de retirarlo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As\u00ed, la gran pregunta no es si el subsidio funciona \u2014porque claramente lo hace\u2014, sino cu\u00e1nto tiempo puede mantenerse. En el corto plazo, de tres a seis meses, es plenamente sostenible y permite ajustes semanales. En un horizonte de seis a doce meses, sigue siendo viable, pero a un costo creciente. M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de un a\u00f1o, con precios elevados del petr\u00f3leo, su permanencia implicar\u00eda decisiones dif\u00edciles: mayor deuda, recortes al gasto o una retirada gradual del apoyo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La conclusi\u00f3n es inevitable. El subsidio a los combustibles es, en esencia, una medida de contenci\u00f3n. Protege a la econom\u00eda, suaviza los efectos de choques externos y brinda estabilidad en momentos de incertidumbre. Pero no es una soluci\u00f3n permanente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e9xico, como cualquier pa\u00eds, no puede escapar de la l\u00f3gica fiscal, lo que hoy se subsidia, ma\u00f1ana se paga. Y la verdadera discusi\u00f3n no est\u00e1 en si se debe o no aplicar el subsidio, sino en c\u00f3mo y cu\u00e1ndo dejar de depender de \u00e9l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comente u opine a:
cacostabravo@yahoo.com.mx<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maestro en Comunicaci\u00f3n por la Universidad Iberoamericana. Form\u00f3 parte  del cuerpo acad\u00e9mico en comunicaci\u00f3n en la Ibero y en la Universidad An\u00e1huac, campus norte CDMX.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carlos Miguel Acosta BravoImpronta En M\u00e9xico, el precio de la gasolina no solo se decide en los mercados internacionales, sino tambi\u00e9n en el escritorio del gobierno. El subsidio a los combustibles \u2014particularmente a la gasolina y el di\u00e9sel\u2014 se ha convertido en una herramienta clave para contener presiones econ\u00f3micas. Sin embargo, detr\u00e1s de este alivio […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":141377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[47968,43303,61246,1351,395,2019,11081],"class_list":{"0":"post-169026","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-bbva","9":"tag-carlos-miguel-acosta-bravo-2","10":"tag-diesel-2","11":"tag-gasolina","12":"tag-mexico","13":"tag-petroleo","14":"tag-subsidio"},"yoast_head":"\nGASOLINA SUBSIDIADA - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=169026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GASOLINA SUBSIDIADA - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carlos Miguel Acosta BravoImpronta En M\u00e9xico, el precio de la gasolina no solo se decide en los mercados internacionales, sino tambi\u00e9n en el escritorio del gobierno. 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