{"id":169247,"date":"2026-04-20T06:17:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T12:17:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=169247"},"modified":"2026-04-20T06:17:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T12:17:14","slug":"escenarios-rumbo-a-la-eleccion-de-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=169247","title":{"rendered":"ESCENARIOS RUMBO A LA ELECCI\u00d3N DE 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Luis Alberto Romero<\/strong>
Hora cero<\/em>
A menos de siete meses del arranque formal del proceso local electoral, tanto el \u00f3rgano electoral como los partidos pol\u00edticos ya se preparan; el OPLE, con los trabajos de organizaci\u00f3n; y los partidos, con la selecci\u00f3n del m\u00e9todo de elecci\u00f3n interno y con la definici\u00f3n de sus de sus posibles cartas para competir.
El inicio del proceso intermedio de 2027, que implica la renovaci\u00f3n de la C\u00e1mara de Diputados local y federal, est\u00e1 programado para los primeros d\u00edas de noviembre.
Ese proceso servir\u00e1 en gran medida para que los partidos eval\u00faen tanto sus ventajas competitivas como sus debilidades electorales; 2027, adem\u00e1s, implicar\u00e1 un nuevo mapa pol\u00edtico y legislativo; la elecci\u00f3n del a\u00f1o entrante definir\u00e1 la nueva C\u00e1mara de Diputados del Congreso de la Uni\u00f3n y, en el caso de Veracruz, la Legislatura local; es decir, los legisladores que cerrar\u00e1n los sexenios de la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum y de la gobernadora Roc\u00edo Nahle, respetivamente.
A 2027, Morena llegar\u00e1 como el partido hegem\u00f3nico tanto en el \u00e1mbito federal como en el plano estatal; en Veracruz, la 4T gobierna casi todas las cabeceras distritales, con las excepciones de Boca del R\u00edo, Orizaba, Perote y Cosoleacaque.
Sin embargo, es incuestionable el avance de Movimiento Ciudadano, que en las elecciones de 2025, el antecedente inmediato de 2027, logr\u00f3 m\u00e1s de 572,000 votos, para superar el 19%. Ese crecimiento tendr\u00eda una explicaci\u00f3n en la suma de cuadros importantes del PRI, que decidieron operar para fortalecer al partido naranja en Veracruz, y volverlo protagonista rumbo a la sucesi\u00f3n de 2030.
Para el an\u00e1lisis queda la baja importante en el n\u00famero de votos para Morena, partido que entre 2024 y 2025 pas\u00f3 de m\u00e1s de un mill\u00f3n 600 mil sufragios a menos de un mill\u00f3n en las municipales de 2025.
A pesar de esa reducci\u00f3n, Morena, sin considerar a los partidos aliados -PT y PVEM- se mantuvo como la principal fuerza pol\u00edtica en Veracruz.
Hace cinco a\u00f1os, el partido guinda super\u00f3 el 36% de los votos totales en la elecci\u00f3n intermedia de 2021; en la contienda de 2024 para renovar la gubernatura, logr\u00f3 m\u00e1s del 48%; y en 2025 el porcentaje se ubic\u00f3 en el 31.5%.
Sin embargo, la baja de Morena no signific\u00f3 un avance de PAN o del PRI, sino de Movimiento Ciudadano, Partido del Trabajo y Verde Ecologista; entre 2024 y 2025, el PT pas\u00f3 del 3.1% al 12.5%; el PVEM, del 5.4% al 7.9%.
La duda, en todo caso, es si esas dos fuerzas pol\u00edticas, aliadas de la 4T, podr\u00e1n mantener en la elecci\u00f3n intermedia de 2027 el nivel que alcanzaron en las municipales de 2025, ya sin la coalici\u00f3n con Morena.
Considerando los desencuentros entre Morena y PT y PVEM en el \u00e1mbito nacional, no parecer\u00eda descabellado que estemos en la antesala de un rompimiento; por otro lado, rumbo a 2027 se observa poco probable que MC y PAN decidan ir juntos.
El partido naranja apostar\u00e1 por crecer s\u00f3lo, sin alianzas; y PAN intentar\u00e1 recuperar el terreno perdido. El PRI va rumbo al precipicio y por lo visto lleva prisa.
@luisromero85<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Luis Alberto RomeroHora ceroA menos de siete meses del arranque formal del proceso local electoral, tanto el \u00f3rgano electoral como los partidos pol\u00edticos ya se preparan; el OPLE, con los trabajos de organizaci\u00f3n; y los partidos, con la selecci\u00f3n del m\u00e9todo de elecci\u00f3n interno y con la definici\u00f3n de sus de sus posibles cartas para […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":141436,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[1026,2327,12446,266,251,2289,264,195],"class_list":{"0":"post-169247","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-morena","9":"tag-movimiento-ciudadano","10":"tag-ople-veracruz","11":"tag-pan","12":"tag-pri","13":"tag-pt","14":"tag-pvem","15":"tag-veracruz"},"yoast_head":"\nESCENARIOS RUMBO A LA ELECCI\u00d3N DE 2027 - 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