{"id":172598,"date":"2026-05-26T21:37:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T03:37:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=172598"},"modified":"2026-05-26T21:37:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T03:37:32","slug":"mexico-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=172598","title":{"rendered":"M\u00c9XICO"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo
<\/strong>Impronta<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Durante a\u00f1os, M\u00e9xico presumi\u00f3 estabilidad macroecon\u00f3mica como uno de sus principales activos frente al mundo. Baja inflaci\u00f3n relativa, disciplina fiscal, autonom\u00eda del Banco de M\u00e9xico y un manejo prudente de la deuda permitieron al pa\u00eds atravesar varias crisis internacionales sin desplomarse. Sin embargo, hoy el escenario comienza a cambiar de manera preocupante.
M\u00e9xico no est\u00e1 todav\u00eda al borde de una quiebra econ\u00f3mica ni enfrenta una crisis inmediata como la de 1994 o 1982. Pero s\u00ed se encuentra entrando en una zona de alto riesgo fiscal, crecimiento mediocre y p\u00e9rdida gradual de margen financiero. Y quiz\u00e1 ese sea el mayor peligro, no un colapso abrupto, sino un deterioro lento y constante que termine debilitando la capacidad econ\u00f3mica del pa\u00eds durante muchos a\u00f1os.
El problema central es que el gasto p\u00fablico mexicano se volvi\u00f3 cada vez m\u00e1s r\u00edgido. Hoy gran parte del presupuesto ya no puede moverse f\u00e1cilmente porque est\u00e1 comprometido en programas sociales, pensiones, pago de deuda y rescates permanentes a Pemex.
El Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica y Presupuestaria (CIEP) advirti\u00f3 que para el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2025 cerca del 80% del gasto ya estaba pr\u00e1cticamente comprometido. Eso significa que el gobierno tiene cada vez menos recursos disponibles para \u00e1reas estrat\u00e9gicas como infraestructura, salud, seguridad, innovaci\u00f3n o educaci\u00f3n superior.
En t\u00e9rminos pol\u00edticos, los programas sociales representan una enorme fortaleza electoral. Nadie puede negar que millones de personas reciben un apoyo que ayuda a aliviar carencias inmediatas. El problema es que, financieramente, el modelo comienza a mostrar se\u00f1ales de saturaci\u00f3n.
Los Programas para el Bienestar ya representan alrededor de 850 mil millones de pesos, equivalentes a cerca del 2.3% del PIB. Adem\u00e1s, el nuevo gobierno de Claudia Sheinbaum ampli\u00f3 todav\u00eda m\u00e1s el n\u00famero de beneficiarios. El resultado es que el gasto social se convirti\u00f3 en una especie de \u201csegunda n\u00f3mina nacional\u201d, cuyo costo crece a\u00f1o con a\u00f1o sin que existan nuevos ingresos suficientes para sostenerlo en el largo plazo.
A esto se suma un problema todav\u00eda m\u00e1s delicado, Pemex.
La petrolera dej\u00f3 de ser hace tiempo el gran sost\u00e9n financiero del Estado mexicano y se convirti\u00f3 en uno de sus principales pasivos. La empresa enfrenta una combinaci\u00f3n explosiva, deuda gigantesca, baja producci\u00f3n, refiner\u00edas poco rentables, costos elevados y necesidad permanente de apoyo gubernamental.
Cada rescate de Pemex implica menos recursos para otras \u00e1reas. Y aunque pol\u00edticamente se insiste en mantener la narrativa de soberan\u00eda energ\u00e9tica, financieramente el costo es enorme.
Por eso Moody\u2019s redujo recientemente la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia de M\u00e9xico al \u00faltimo escal\u00f3n del grado de inversi\u00f3n. El mensaje de los mercados fue claro, la preocupaci\u00f3n ya no s\u00f3lo es Pemex, sino la capacidad futura del Estado mexicano para sostener simult\u00e1neamente programas sociales crecientes, deuda p\u00fablica, subsidios energ\u00e9ticos y bajo crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.
Lo m\u00e1s preocupante es que M\u00e9xico podr\u00eda entrar en un ciclo muy dif\u00edcil de romper, bajo crecimiento genera menos ingresos fiscales; menos ingresos obligan a m\u00e1s deuda; m\u00e1s deuda incrementa el pago de intereses; y eso reduce todav\u00eda m\u00e1s la capacidad de invertir en desarrollo productivo.
El Banco Mundial ya proyecta un crecimiento cercano a apenas 1.3% para 2026. Esa cifra es insuficiente para un pa\u00eds que necesita generar millones de empleos, reducir pobreza y aprovechar el nearshoring.
Porque incluso el fen\u00f3meno del nearshoring podr\u00eda desperdiciarse parcialmente si M\u00e9xico no mejora seguridad, energ\u00eda, infraestructura, Estado de derecho y certeza jur\u00eddica. Las empresas internacionales no s\u00f3lo buscan mano de obra barata; buscan estabilidad, electricidad suficiente, carreteras seguras y reglas claras.
Hoy el verdadero debate econ\u00f3mico no deber\u00eda centrarse \u00fanicamente en si los apoyos sociales deben existir o no. El reto es otro, c\u00f3mo lograr que el gasto p\u00fablico tambi\u00e9n genere productividad y crecimiento.
Ninguna econom\u00eda puede sostenerse indefinidamente repartiendo dinero mientras reduce inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica estrat\u00e9gica. Tarde o temprano las finanzas comienzan a tensarse.
M\u00e9xico necesita al menos tres decisiones fundamentales:
Primero, una reforma fiscal seria que ampl\u00ede la base tributaria sin destruir inversi\u00f3n ni clase media.
Segundo, una reestructura real de Pemex, no s\u00f3lo rescates temporales financiados con recursos p\u00fablicos.
Y tercero, redirigir parte del gasto hacia infraestructura, seguridad, salud, tecnolog\u00eda, educaci\u00f3n y desarrollo industrial.
De lo contrario, el pa\u00eds podr\u00eda evitar una crisis espectacular, pero quedar atrapado durante a\u00f1os en una econom\u00eda estancada, con crecimiento mediocre, inversi\u00f3n limitada y deterioro gradual de las finanzas p\u00fablicas.
M\u00e9xico no est\u00e1 quebrado. Pero s\u00ed est\u00e1 comenzando a gastar como si el margen fiscal fuera infinito. Y la historia econ\u00f3mica demuestra que ning\u00fan pa\u00eds puede hacerlo eternamente sin consecuencias.
Comente u opine a:
cacostabravo@yahoo.com.mx
Maestro en Comunicaci\u00f3n por la Universidad Iberoamericana. Form\u00f3 parte del cuerpo acad\u00e9mico de la Licenciatura en Comunicaci\u00f3n en esa instituci\u00f3n, as\u00ed como de la Universidad An\u00e1huac, camp\u00fas norte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carlos Miguel Acosta BravoImpronta Durante a\u00f1os, M\u00e9xico presumi\u00f3 estabilidad macroecon\u00f3mica como uno de sus principales activos frente al mundo. Baja inflaci\u00f3n relativa, disciplina fiscal, autonom\u00eda del Banco de M\u00e9xico y un manejo prudente de la deuda permitieron al pa\u00eds atravesar varias crisis internacionales sin desplomarse. Sin embargo, hoy el escenario comienza a cambiar de manera […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":141377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[65598,43287,65595,65596,63047,65599,65597],"class_list":{"0":"post-172598","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-calificacion-crediticia-moodys","9":"tag-carlos-miguel-acosta-bravo","10":"tag-estancamiento-economico-mexicano","11":"tag-gasto-publico-comprometido","12":"tag-impronta-columna","13":"tag-reforma-fiscal-mexico","14":"tag-riesgo-fiscal-mexico"},"yoast_head":"\nM\u00c9XICO - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=172598\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"M\u00c9XICO - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carlos Miguel Acosta BravoImpronta Durante a\u00f1os, M\u00e9xico presumi\u00f3 estabilidad macroecon\u00f3mica como uno de sus principales activos frente al mundo. Baja inflaci\u00f3n relativa, disciplina fiscal, autonom\u00eda del Banco de M\u00e9xico y un manejo prudente de la deuda permitieron al pa\u00eds atravesar varias crisis internacionales sin desplomarse. 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