{"id":176073,"date":"2026-07-10T08:52:16","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T14:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=176073"},"modified":"2026-07-10T08:52:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T14:52:17","slug":"va-mexico-realmente-rumbo-al-estancamiento-economico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=176073","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfVA M\u00c9XICO REALMENTE RUMBO AL ESTANCAMIENTO ECON\u00d3MICO?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Miguel Valera
<\/strong>Contrase\u00f1as<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El senador morenista Manuel Huerta Ladr\u00f3n de Guevara sali\u00f3 a defender la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica del Movimiento de Regeneraci\u00f3n Nacional, a 12 a\u00f1os de que MORENA recibi\u00f3 su registro como partido pol\u00edtico ante el INE, \u201cmarcando un antes y un despu\u00e9s en la historia de M\u00e9xico\u2026 Somos el movimiento pol\u00edtico m\u00e1s grande de Am\u00e9rica Latina, con 12 millones de afiliados\u201d, indic\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSomos quienes defendemos nuestra soberan\u00eda. Somos pueblo, somos hombres y mujeres libres que seguimos construyendo la Cuarta Transformaci\u00f3n: la esperanza de M\u00e9xico\u201d, dijo el hombre que ha luchado para no ser igual a los de antes, siguiendo los principios de su Tlatoani, el ex presidente Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, cuyo ideario fue \u201cno robar, no mentir y no traicionar\u201d al pueblo de M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayer, frente a las cr\u00edticas de los \u201cneoliberales\u201d \u2014y de la apabullante realidad\u2014, Manuel Huerta hizo eco a la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, quien sali\u00f3 a la defensa de su proyecto pol\u00edtico-econ\u00f3mico con 12 indicadores que muestran la fortaleza econ\u00f3mica de M\u00e9xico. As\u00ed los escribi\u00f3 el legislador xalape\u00f1o con ra\u00edces naolinque\u00f1as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c1. M\u00e9xico se coloca entre los 10 pa\u00edses con mayor Inversi\u00f3n Extranjera Directa (IED).
\u20071.\u2060 \u2060M\u00e9xico, primer lugar entre los pa\u00edses de la OCDE con mayores incrementos a los salarios reales desde 2018.
\u20072.\u2060 \u2060M\u00e9xico, con la segunda tasa de desempleo m\u00e1s baja (2.7%) de los pa\u00edses de la OCDE, s\u00f3lo detr\u00e1s de Jap\u00f3n.
\u20073.\u2060 \u2060R\u00e9cord hist\u00f3rico en empleos formales en junio de 2026: 22 millones 779 mil 704 puestos de trabajo afiliados al IMSS.
\u20074.\u2060 \u2060Salario de cotizaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s alto de la historia: 669.1 pesos diarios, 6.4% por encima del a\u00f1o anterior.
\u20075.\u2060 \u2060Intercambio comercial M\u00e9xico-EE.UU. alcanz\u00f3 839 mmd, cifra hist\u00f3rica; M\u00e9xico sigue siendo su principal socio comercial.
\u20076.\u2060 \u2060Exportaciones mexicanas alcanzaron un r\u00e9cord hist\u00f3rico de 723 mmd.
\u20077.\u2060 \u2060La inversi\u00f3n fija bruta creci\u00f3 5.9% anual en abril de 2026.
\u20078.\u2060 \u2060El Indicador Mensual de Consumo Privado creci\u00f3 2.1% respecto al a\u00f1o anterior.
\u20079.\u2060 \u2060La actividad econ\u00f3mica mantiene tendencia creciente y alcanza un nuevo m\u00e1ximo.
10.\u2060 \u2060La actividad industrial repunt\u00f3 en abril, su mayor nivel desde octubre de 2024.
11.\u2060 \u2060La inflaci\u00f3n baj\u00f3 a 3.6%, su menor nivel en ocho meses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La transformaci\u00f3n avanza con resultados\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este discurso quiere, medi\u00e1ticamente, dar respuesta al an\u00e1lisis del doctor Pedro Aspe Armella en un foro del Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) el pasado mes de abril. Ah\u00ed acudieron j\u00f3venes mexicanos que hacen estudios de posgrado en distintas universidades de Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En ese espacio acad\u00e9mico, el hombre que fuera secretario de Programaci\u00f3n y Presupuesto y secretario de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico en el Gobierno de M\u00e9xico dibuj\u00f3 en cuatro puntos, el panorama econ\u00f3mico de nuestro pa\u00eds, texto que fue publicado por la revista Nexos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I. D\u00e9ficit presupuestal estructuralmente alto. El aumento desmedido del gasto corriente ha desplazado la inversi\u00f3n productiva. La \u201csegunda n\u00f3mina\u201d: aumento improductivo del gasto corriente. 29.4 millones de beneficiarios actuales de programas de apoyo en efectivo. 3\u2009% del PIB gastado en programas sociales (frente al 0.5\u2009% en 2018) Tan s\u00f3lo en el primer a\u00f1o de la administraci\u00f3n de Sheinbaum se a\u00f1adieron 3 millones de beneficiarios nuevos. Un gasto puramente corriente sin retornos productivos para la econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El agujero negro de P\u00e9mex: m\u00e1s recursos, menor producci\u00f3n. Se inyectan al menos 400 mmd anuales (1\u2009% del PIB) a P\u00e9mex mediante subsidios y apoyos, sin que esto se traduzca en mayor eficiencia. Se produce menos que nunca.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

II. Deuda p\u00fablica alta y creciente. M\u00e9xico se acerca peligrosamente al umbral del 60\u2009% en la relaci\u00f3n Deuda\/PIB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

III. Crecimiento econ\u00f3mico bajo. El PIB per c\u00e1pita y la productividad son negativos, arrastrados por una inversi\u00f3n insuficiente. Una d\u00e9cada perdida: PIB estancado y per c\u00e1pita en retroceso. Las pol\u00edticas actuales tienen como consecuencia el estancamiento absoluto. Tenemos un PIB per c\u00e1pita m\u00e1s bajo que hace siete a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El motor apagado: 16 meses de ca\u00edda en inversi\u00f3n. Tasa de inversi\u00f3n significativamente baja, acumulando 16 meses consecutivos de ca\u00eddas respecto al a\u00f1o anterior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IV. La cascada estructural hacia el estancamiento econ\u00f3mico
\u2022\u2060 \u2060Causa ra\u00edz: d\u00e9ficit impulsado por gasto corriente. Transferencias a 29 millones de personas y subsidios a P\u00e9mex ($592 mmdp anuales) sin retorno productivo
\u2022\u2060 \u2060Presi\u00f3n fiscal: d\u00e9ficit insostenible. Las finanzas p\u00fablicas se deterioran gravemente por la falta de inversi\u00f3n f\u00edsica y el gasto inflexible.
\u2022\u2060 \u2060Punto de quiebre: riesgo soberano (umbral 60\u2009%). La deuda se enfila a perder el grado de inversi\u00f3n en 2026, ahuyentando capitales y encareciendo el cr\u00e9dito.
\u2022\u2060 \u2060Resultado final: estancamiento permanente. El PIB per c\u00e1pita se consolida por debajo de niveles de 2018 debido al colapso de inversi\u00f3n y la productividad negativa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los datos est\u00e1n ah\u00ed, amable lector. Usted saque sus conclusiones. De momento, si puede, disminuya su gasto y ahorre, porque se vienen tiempos dif\u00edciles en lo econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

@MValeraH<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Miguel ValeraContrase\u00f1as El senador morenista Manuel Huerta Ladr\u00f3n de Guevara sali\u00f3 a defender la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica del Movimiento de Regeneraci\u00f3n Nacional, a 12 a\u00f1os de que MORENA recibi\u00f3 su registro como partido pol\u00edtico ante el INE, \u201cmarcando un antes y un despu\u00e9s en la historia de M\u00e9xico\u2026 Somos el movimiento pol\u00edtico m\u00e1s grande de Am\u00e9rica […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":141429,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[9627,8204,69411,13209,69413,10317,69412],"class_list":{"0":"post-176073","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-claudia-sheinbaum","9":"tag-crecimiento-economico","10":"tag-economia-de-mexico","11":"tag-finanzas-publicas","12":"tag-inversion-en-mexico","13":"tag-manuel-huerta","14":"tag-pedro-aspe"},"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfVA M\u00c9XICO REALMENTE RUMBO AL ESTANCAMIENTO ECON\u00d3MICO? 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