{"id":180321,"date":"2026-09-09T05:46:59","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T11:46:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=180321"},"modified":"2026-09-09T05:47:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T11:47:00","slug":"finanzas-publicas-al-limite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=180321","title":{"rendered":"FINANZAS P\u00daBLICAS AL L\u00cdMITE"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Jorge Ram\u00f3n Rizzo*<\/strong>
Focus Group<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 cumple con la funci\u00f3n de enviar un mensaje de tranquilidad a los mercados financieros y a las agencias calificadoras al prometer disciplina y control de la deuda en el mediano plazo. No obstante, estira al l\u00edmite las capacidades del marco tributario actual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En mi humilde opini\u00f3n el presupuesto para 2027, fijado en 10.6 billones de pesos, funciona para administrar la coyuntura actual, pero pospone, una vez m\u00e1s, la soluci\u00f3n a las debilidades estructurales de los ingresos p\u00fablicos de M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Porque las principales debilidades estructurales de los ingresos p\u00fablicos en M\u00e9xico incluyen una baja recaudaci\u00f3n fiscal que se sit\u00faa muy por debajo del promedio de la OCDE y una econom\u00eda predominantemente informal que supera el 54% de la poblaci\u00f3n ocupada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asimismo, el sistema padece una alta dependencia y volatilidad de los ingresos petroleros ligados a Pemex, una base gravable estrecha con m\u00faltiples exenciones y una marcada debilidad fiscal de los gobiernos estatales y municipales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La columna vertebral de los Criterios Generales de Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f3mica descansa sobre una estimaci\u00f3n de crecimiento para 2027 de entre 1.5% y 2.5%. Si bien la cifra luce prudente frente a sexenios pasados, resulta audaz frente al ritmo real de desaceleraci\u00f3n que arrastra la econom\u00eda mexicana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sostener este crecimiento en un entorno de alta volatilidad externa y con las presiones de las tasas de inter\u00e9s internacionales roza el voluntarismo hacendario. La gran apuesta de ingresos, fijada en 9.2 billones de pesos, se jugar\u00e1 en el terreno de la eficiencia, ya que el Gobierno Federal mantiene la promesa de no crear nuevos impuestos ni incrementar los existentes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plantean la ampliaci\u00f3n de retenciones en plataformas digitales y control al IEPS de combustibles; la persecuci\u00f3n estricta a empresas factureras y esquemas de elusi\u00f3n fiscal; la implementaci\u00f3n de una novedosa ‘Ley de Econom\u00eda Digital’ que busca acotar de forma gradual el uso del efectivo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De acuerdo a las y los especialistas que consult\u00e9 el nudo gordiano aparece entre el gasto social en contraste con el estrechamiento fiscal. Porque el compromiso pol\u00edtico de la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum con el \u00abhumanismo mexicano\u00bb es inamovible, reflejado en la asignaci\u00f3n de 1 bill\u00f3n 25 mil millones de pesos para programas prioritarios (con la Pensi\u00f3n para Adultos Mayores a la cabeza con 543.5 mil millones) y un incremento sustancial del 10.9% en el ramo de Salud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En esta entrega de Focus Group debo centrar que problema cr\u00edtico radica en la viabilidad de la anunciada ‘consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal’, as\u00ed como reducir el d\u00e9ficit al 3.9% del PIB sin una reforma fiscal integral, lo que resulta todo un ejercicio de equilibrismo extremo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al no haber nuevos grav\u00e1menes, el ajuste para cuadrar las cuentas fiscales inevitablemente recaer\u00e1 sobre dos variables: Un optimismo recaudatorio que podr\u00eda quedarse corto si la econom\u00eda no crece al 2% puntual, o bien, un recorte silencioso en el gasto de funcionamiento operativo del Estado y en la inversi\u00f3n f\u00edsica de infraestructura que no sea considerada \u00abestrat\u00e9gica\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mientras el gasto social siga una trayectoria inercial ascendente debido a la demograf\u00eda y a los nuevos derechos constitucionales, la negativa a discutir una reforma fiscal de fondo coloca al pa\u00eds en una posici\u00f3n de vulnerabilidad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiar el destino de las finanzas p\u00fablicas \u00fanicamente a la persecuci\u00f3n de evasores y a la digitalizaci\u00f3n del efectivo tiene una fecha de caducidad temprana. Ya que el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico para 2027, presentado ante el Congreso de la Uni\u00f3n por el secretario de Hacienda, \u00c9dgar Amador Zamora, dibuja una ruta financiera que intenta sostener el ambicioso gasto social de la administraci\u00f3n cuatroteista a trav\u00e9s de proyecciones optimistas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para concluir, debo dejar plasmana la idea de que el 2027 podr\u00eda pasar a la historia no como el a\u00f1o de la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal, sino como el momento en que los n\u00fameros finalmente alcanzaron a la ret\u00f3rica\u2026. Ojal\u00e1 me equivoque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Periodista\/Tlaxcala<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jorge Ram\u00f3n Rizzo*Focus Group El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 cumple con la funci\u00f3n de enviar un mensaje de tranquilidad a los mercados financieros y a las agencias calificadoras al prometer disciplina y control de la deuda en el mediano plazo. No obstante, estira al l\u00edmite las capacidades del marco tributario actual. En mi humilde opini\u00f3n el […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":174802,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[9627,71078,71079,2056,71076,372,71077],"class_list":{"0":"post-180321","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-claudia-sheinbaum","9":"tag-consolidacion-fiscal","10":"tag-edgar-amador-zamora","11":"tag-gobierno-federal","12":"tag-paquete-economico-2027","13":"tag-pemex","14":"tag-politica-economica"},"yoast_head":"\nFINANZAS P\u00daBLICAS AL L\u00cdMITE - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=180321\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FINANZAS P\u00daBLICAS AL L\u00cdMITE - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jorge Ram\u00f3n Rizzo*Focus Group El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 cumple con la funci\u00f3n de enviar un mensaje de tranquilidad a los mercados financieros y a las agencias calificadoras al prometer disciplina y control de la deuda en el mediano plazo. No obstante, estira al l\u00edmite las capacidades del marco tributario actual. 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