{"id":180520,"date":"2026-09-11T07:23:46","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T13:23:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=180520"},"modified":"2026-09-11T07:23:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T13:23:47","slug":"la-deuda-publica-de-la-4t","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=180520","title":{"rendered":"LA DEUDA P\u00daBLICA DE LA 4T"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Pepe Cort\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Una de las promesas econ\u00f3micas m\u00e1s repetidas de la llamada Cuarta Transformaci\u00f3n fue no endeudar a M\u00e9xico. Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador convirti\u00f3 la deuda p\u00fablica y el Fobaproa en s\u00edmbolos de la irresponsabilidad de los gobiernos anteriores. Hoy, las cifras de la propia Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda muestran cu\u00e1nto aument\u00f3 la deuda durante su gobierno y cu\u00e1nto se proyecta que crecer\u00e1 con Claudia Sheinbaum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMLO recibi\u00f3 en 2018 un Saldo Hist\u00f3rico de los Requerimientos Financieros del Sector P\u00fablico (SHRFSP) de 10.550 billones de pesos, equivalente a 44.8% del PIB. Al terminar su gobierno, en 2024, alcanz\u00f3 17.426 billones y 51.4% del PIB: un incremento nominal de 6.875 billones de pesos en seis a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La dimensi\u00f3n resulta todav\u00eda m\u00e1s clara utilizando una referencia que L\u00f3pez Obrador convirti\u00f3 durante d\u00e9cadas en bandera pol\u00edtica. Los aproximadamente 552 mil millones de pesos del Fobaproa representan apenas una fracci\u00f3n del incremento registrado durante su administraci\u00f3n: los 6.875 billones adicionales equivalen a 12.5 Fobaproas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 fue adem\u00e1s el punto de inflexi\u00f3n fiscal. El \u00faltimo a\u00f1o de L\u00f3pez Obrador dej\u00f3 elevados requerimientos financieros, un d\u00e9ficit considerable y una deuda superior al 51% del PIB. Ese fue el punto de partida que recibi\u00f3 Claudia Sheinbaum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para diciembre de 2027, Hacienda proyecta que el SHRFSP llegar\u00e1 a 21.849 billones de pesos, equivalente al 55% del PIB. Esto significar\u00eda agregar 4.423 billones de pesos en los primeros tres a\u00f1os de Sheinbaum, aproximadamente 8 Fobaproas adicionales. Para ese mismo a\u00f1o, Hacienda estima Requerimientos Financieros del Sector P\u00fablico por 1.391 billones de pesos, 3.5% del PIB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La diferencia entre ambas administraciones es reveladora: AMLO agreg\u00f3 6.875 billones en seis a\u00f1os; Sheinbaum agregar\u00eda 4.423 billones en solamente tres. De cumplirse las proyecciones oficiales, entre 2018 y 2027 los gobiernos de la 4T habr\u00e1n incrementado la deuda aproximadamente 11.3 billones de pesos, equivalente a m\u00e1s de 20 Fobaproas. El ritmo anual de crecimiento nominal del saldo durante los primeros tres a\u00f1os de Sheinbaum ser\u00eda incluso mayor que durante el sexenio anterior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La deuda tiene adem\u00e1s un costo inmediato. Para 2026, su costo financiero ronda 1.5 billones de pesos, equivalente a 4.1% del PIB, y absorbe alrededor del 15% del gasto neto total. Es dinero comprometido antes de llegar a hospitales, escuelas, carreteras, seguridad o infraestructura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pero los intereses son solamente una parte de la factura. Cuando un gobierno mantiene d\u00e9ficits y se endeuda para sostener un gasto superior a sus ingresos, consume hoy recursos que todav\u00eda no ha generado. El desequilibrio no desaparece: se acumula en forma de deuda, intereses y mayores necesidades de financiamiento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y ah\u00ed aparece otro costo: la inflaci\u00f3n. Los d\u00e9ficits fiscales persistentes y un gasto p\u00fablico que crece por encima de los ingresos pueden generar presiones sobre los precios. Cuando el Estado sostiene durante a\u00f1os ese desequilibrio mediante mayor endeudamiento, la factura no se limita al costo financiero: tambi\u00e9n puede terminar reflej\u00e1ndose en el poder adquisitivo de las familias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La inflaci\u00f3n funciona entonces como un impuesto silencioso. No aparece como IVA o ISR, pero se cobra cuando el salario compra menos alimentos, gasolina, transporte o servicios; cuando los ahorros pierden valor y cuando una familia necesita cada vez m\u00e1s pesos para mantener el mismo nivel de vida. La inflaci\u00f3n no elimina el costo de los desequilibrios fiscales: lo traslada tambi\u00e9n al bolsillo de los ciudadanos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El problema de fondo es para qu\u00e9 se utiliza la deuda. Endeudarse para financiar inversi\u00f3n productiva que genere crecimiento, infraestructura y mayores ingresos futuros puede crear las condiciones para pagarla. Endeudarse sistem\u00e1ticamente para financiar d\u00e9ficits y gasto sin generar suficiente crecimiento significa consumir hoy recursos que tendr\u00e1n que producirse ma\u00f1ana. Eso no es deuda sana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cada bill\u00f3n adicional compromete una parte de los presupuestos futuros. Capital e intereses deber\u00e1n pagarse con los ingresos p\u00fablicos de los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os, reduciendo los recursos disponibles para inversi\u00f3n, servicios p\u00fablicos y nuevas necesidades. El endeudamiento de hoy termina condicionando a generaciones que no participaron en las decisiones que originaron esa deuda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La contradicci\u00f3n es enorme. La 4T lleg\u00f3 al poder denunciando la deuda del pasado y convirti\u00f3 al Fobaproa en s\u00edmbolo de aquello que jam\u00e1s deb\u00eda repetirse. Para 2027, sus propios gobiernos habr\u00e1n llevado el saldo de la deuda p\u00fablica a casi 22 billones de pesos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prometieron no endeudar a M\u00e9xico. Nueve a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s, la deuda pr\u00e1cticamente se habr\u00e1 duplicado. Los gobiernos pasan y las deudas permanecen. Lo que se gasta hoy terminar\u00e1 siendo pagado por las generaciones que vienen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

@pepecortesmx<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economista y abogado por la UV, posgrado en Administraci\u00f3n P\u00fablica y Control y Fiscalizaci\u00f3n. Consejero estatal y miembro de la Comisi\u00f3n Permanente del PAN en Veracruz; ex director general de Vinculaci\u00f3n y Coordinaci\u00f3n Hacendaria de la SEFIPLAN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pepe Cort\u00e9s Una de las promesas econ\u00f3micas m\u00e1s repetidas de la llamada Cuarta Transformaci\u00f3n fue no endeudar a M\u00e9xico. Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador convirti\u00f3 la deuda p\u00fablica y el Fobaproa en s\u00edmbolos de la irresponsabilidad de los gobiernos anteriores. Hoy, las cifras de la propia Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda muestran cu\u00e1nto aument\u00f3 la deuda durante su […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":180521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[618,9627,12744,1248,30785,1026,43482],"class_list":{"0":"post-180520","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-de-opinion","8":"tag-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador","9":"tag-claudia-sheinbaum","10":"tag-cuarta-transformacion","11":"tag-deuda-publica","12":"tag-fobaproa","13":"tag-morena","14":"tag-pepe-cortes"},"yoast_head":"\nLA DEUDA P\u00daBLICA DE LA 4T - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=180520\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LA DEUDA P\u00daBLICA DE LA 4T - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pepe Cort\u00e9s Una de las promesas econ\u00f3micas m\u00e1s repetidas de la llamada Cuarta Transformaci\u00f3n fue no endeudar a M\u00e9xico. Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador convirti\u00f3 la deuda p\u00fablica y el Fobaproa en s\u00edmbolos de la irresponsabilidad de los gobiernos anteriores. 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