{"id":181063,"date":"2026-09-19T09:45:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T15:45:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=181063"},"modified":"2026-09-19T09:45:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T15:45:40","slug":"encuestas-dejaron-de-medir-para-buscar-influir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=181063","title":{"rendered":"ENCUESTAS, DEJARON DE MEDIR PARA BUSCAR INFLUIR"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Gonzalo Gu\u00edzar Valladares<\/strong>
En Voz Alta<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las encuestas electorales en M\u00e9xico han pasado de ser un instrumento de medici\u00f3n cient\u00edfica a convertirse en un campo de batalla de propaganda pol\u00edtica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desde que George Gallup predijo con exactitud la victoria de Roosevelt en Estados Unidos hace m\u00e1s de 90 a\u00f1os, hasta la llegada de la demoscopia cient\u00edfica a M\u00e9xico en 1994 y que marc\u00f3 el estreno absoluto de las encuestas electorales masivas e influyentes en el pa\u00eds, hemos visto evoluci\u00f3n en la utilizaci\u00f3n de las mediciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En los \u00faltimos tiempos, la proliferaci\u00f3n de mediciones con resultados contradictorios y los recurrentes fallos frente a los resultados oficiales han erosionado la confianza ciudadana. Lo que antes se percib\u00eda como una br\u00fajula para entender las tendencias del electorado, hoy es visto con sospecha: Una herramienta de simulaci\u00f3n dise\u00f1ada m\u00e1s para construir narrativas de victoria que para reflejar la realidad en las urnas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originalmente, las encuestas nacieron bajo el principio de registrar la opini\u00f3n p\u00fablica en un momento espec\u00edfico. Sin embargo, en el ecosistema pol\u00edtico mexicano, su funci\u00f3n ha sufrido una mutaci\u00f3n severa y hoy en d\u00eda, muchos ejercicios demosc\u00f3picos se utilizan como mecanismos de inducci\u00f3n del voto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se busca generar el llamado \u00abefecto carro de la victoria\u00bb (bandwagon effect), donde se intenta convencer al votante indeciso de que el resultado ya est\u00e1 decidido, desincentivando con ello la participaci\u00f3n \u00f3 forzando el voto \u00fatil. Cuando una encuesta se publica no para informar, sino para influir, pierde de inmediato su valor metodol\u00f3gico y \u00e9tico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haciendo un poco de hostoria en M\u00e9xico, donde vivimos bajo el r\u00e9gimen del partido \u00fanico (PRI), la realizaci\u00f3n de encuestas no fue necesaria ya que durante casi 60 a\u00f1os el resultado de las elecciones estaba pr\u00e1cticamente predeterminado, lo que restaba utilidad pr\u00e1ctica a los pron\u00f3sticos electorales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La pol\u00e9mica y competida contienda entre Carlos Salinas de Gortari y Cuauht\u00e9moc C\u00e1rdenas en 1988 gener\u00f3 una sacudida e impuls\u00f3 a que medios y consultores privados empezaran a aplicar metodolog\u00edas m\u00e1s recurrentes para medir el pulso real de una sociedad en v\u00edas de alcanzar apertura democr\u00e1tica y eventualmente llegar a la alternancia en el poder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con el paso de los a\u00f1os, muchas casas encuestadoras operan bajo l\u00f3gicas de mercado y no de academia. Al ser contratadas por partidos pol\u00edticos o equipos de campa\u00f1a, existe un conflicto de inter\u00e9s impl\u00edcito, ya que tal pareciera que el cliente no busca una radiograf\u00eda inc\u00f3moda sino que busca una gr\u00e1fica que pueda presumir en redes sociales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hay firmas que salvan su nombre, otorg\u00e1ndose prestigio y fama por alcanzar similitud plena entre la encuesta levantada y el resultado final electoral. En ese caso est\u00e1n casas encuestadoras como ‘Enkoll’, ‘Buend\u00eda & M\u00e1rquez’ \u00f3 ‘De Las Heras’.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para recuperar el valor de las encuestas en M\u00e9xico se requiere transitar hacia una transparencia absoluta en las metodolog\u00edas y el financiamiento, auditada de forma m\u00e1s estricta por las autoridades electorales. Sin embargo, la defensa m\u00e1s efectiva radica en la madurez del ciudadano: entender que las encuestas son pron\u00f3sticos ef\u00edmeros y vol\u00e1tiles, y que el \u00fanico ejercicio estad\u00edstico que realmente define el rumbo del pa\u00eds es el que se ejerce, de manera libre y secreta, dentro de la casilla electoral. Y, de cara al 2027 nos toparemos en los meses por venir con la ‘encuestitis’ e iremos al encuentro con las urnas, que define a los legales y \u00fanicos representantes populares, m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de lo que digan las encuestas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gonzalo Gu\u00edzar ValladaresEn Voz Alta Las encuestas electorales en M\u00e9xico han pasado de ser un instrumento de medici\u00f3n cient\u00edfica a convertirse en un campo de batalla de propaganda pol\u00edtica. Desde que George Gallup predijo con exactitud la victoria de Roosevelt en Estados Unidos hace m\u00e1s de 90 a\u00f1os, hasta la llegada de la demoscopia cient\u00edfica […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":172042,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[71204,3223,14481,3090,71202,438,71203],"class_list":["post-181063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-de-opinion","tag-bandwagon-effect","tag-carlos-salinas-de-gortari","tag-cuauhtemoc-cardenas","tag-encuestas","tag-george-gallup","tag-gonzalo-guizar-valladares","tag-roosevelt"],"yoast_head":"\nENCUESTAS, DEJARON DE MEDIR PARA BUSCAR INFLUIR - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=181063\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ENCUESTAS, DEJARON DE MEDIR PARA BUSCAR INFLUIR - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gonzalo Gu\u00edzar ValladaresEn Voz Alta Las encuestas electorales en M\u00e9xico han pasado de ser un instrumento de medici\u00f3n cient\u00edfica a convertirse en un campo de batalla de propaganda pol\u00edtica. 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