{"id":2447,"date":"2014-06-28T01:04:00","date_gmt":"2014-06-28T01:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lospoliticosveracruz.com.mx\/?p=2447"},"modified":"2014-10-10T03:00:17","modified_gmt":"2014-10-10T03:00:17","slug":"2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=2447","title":{"rendered":"2015"},"content":{"rendered":"

Eduardo de la Torre Jaramillo<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Escenarios<\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Justo dentro de un a\u00f1o tendremos <\/span><\/span>otra elecci\u00f3n<\/span><\/span> para elegir diputados federales; con todo lo que implica una elecci\u00f3n intermedia<\/span><\/span>, particularmente con la evaluaci\u00f3n de la mitad del periodo  gubernamental; <\/span><\/span>dicho sea de paso, <\/span><\/span>en las \u00faltimas tres elecciones federales intermedias<\/span><\/span> han presentado<\/span><\/span> una baja votaci\u00f3n, esto por la desafecci\u00f3n y descontento por los resultados del gobierno federal.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Es pertinente recordar que desde que se arrib\u00f3 a la democracia en el plano nacional en 1997; no s\u00f3lo se produjo el primer gobierno dividido y\/o compartido<\/span><\/span>, donde una de las motivaciones del voto fue la primera crisis de la globalizaci\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico; posteriormente en 2003<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/span>s\u00f3lo <\/span><\/span>vot\u00f3 el 38% <\/span><\/span>como resultado <\/span><\/span>del desencanto <\/span><\/span>social <\/span><\/span>hacia<\/span><\/span> la primera alternancia; y nuevamente en 2009, <\/span><\/span>con <\/span><\/span>otra crisis econ\u00f3mica <\/span><\/span>que <\/span><\/span>marc\u00f3 la tendencia del voto en contra del gobierno calderonis<\/span><\/span>ta<\/span><\/span>, <\/span><\/span>en el que <\/span><\/span>disminuy\u00f3 el n\u00famero de diputados federales, de 207 baj<\/span><\/span>ando<\/span><\/span> a 157 congresistas.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

En el actual contexto econ\u00f3mico, de <\/span><\/span>nulo crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, de alto desempleo y sobre todo de incumplimiento de las promesas del actual equipo gobernante, <\/span><\/span>adem\u00e1s de que los <\/span><\/span>partidos pol\u00edticos de \u201coposici\u00f3n\u201d <\/span><\/span>ahondan su <\/span><\/span>creciente divisi\u00f3n interna<\/span><\/span>, y dejan de diferenciarse del PRI, ya que \u00fanicamente se presentan en tonos grises y no en blanco y negro<\/span><\/span>;<\/span><\/span> es de suma importancia comentar que para el elector medio, \u00e9ste necesita tener claves de diferenciaci\u00f3n entre los propios partidos pol\u00edticos; como en el pasado lo fue el PAN con su \u00e9tica pol\u00edtica, su coraje c\u00edvico y su claro enfrentamiento con el r\u00e9gimen pol\u00edtico autoritario; o en el caso del PRD, quienes nacieron de un fraude electoral cometido por el viejo sistema pol\u00edtico, y con el paso de los a\u00f1os, los perredistas se convirtieron en el partido<\/span><\/span> del fraude interno. Empero, el desdibujamiento de ser un partido pol\u00edtico de oposici\u00f3n en el pa\u00eds no s\u00f3lo los degrado, sino que los ciudadanos ya no pueden distinguir entre uno y otro, por eso la filosof\u00eda popular afirma que: \u201ctodos los partidos son iguales\u201d.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Los comentarios anteriores son producto de la revisi\u00f3n de <\/span><\/span>la \u00faltima encuesta de GEA-ISA del mes de junio de 2014,<\/span><\/span> la cual nos arroj\u00f3 <\/span><\/span>una serie de resultados<\/span><\/span>, a continuaci\u00f3n presento l<\/span><\/span>a informaci\u00f3n de dicha encuesta.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La elecci\u00f3n del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o tendr\u00e1 una<\/span><\/span> baja votaci\u00f3n<\/span><\/span>, la cual se ubica en un 43%, y esto porque l<\/span><\/span>os mexicanos est\u00e1n<\/span><\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span>insatisfechos con la democracia<\/span><\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span> en un 62%; ubican en un 53% que la situaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica es <\/span><\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span>mala<\/span><\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span>; y que para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o la situaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica ser\u00e1 <\/span><\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span>mala<\/span><\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span> en un 54%; adem\u00e1s que el mayor error del actual gobierno fue la<\/span><\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span>aprobaci\u00f3n de las reformas<\/span><\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/span>en un 10%; y que el presidente P<\/span><\/span>e\u00f1a Nieto <\/span><\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span>no sabe c\u00f3mo gobernar<\/span><\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/span>al pa\u00eds <\/span><\/span>en un 44%; esto se refleja en la \u201c<\/span><\/span>a<\/span><\/span>probaci\u00f3n\u201d del presidente Enrique Pe\u00f1a en el segundo trimestre de 2014 es \u00fanicamente del 39% .<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Dentro del rubro sobre los <\/span><\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span>mayores aciertos<\/span><\/span>\u201d del gobierno<\/span><\/span>se encuentran: \u201cAyuda a pobres\u201d en un 8.9%, el \u201ccombate al narcotr\u00e1fico\u201d s\u00f3lo alcanza un 5.1%; as\u00ed como tambi\u00e9n con el \u201ccombate a la inseguridad\u201d en un 4.6%; la \u201creforma educativa\u201d s\u00f3lo el 2.7%; y en el caso de la \u201cmateria energ\u00e9tica\u201d el 2.9%; porcentajes muy bajos para un gobierno que se le vot\u00f3 por el argumento de que sab\u00edan gobernar.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Para el caso de los partidos pol\u00edticos, en el rubro sobre su \u201cconocimiento\u201d<\/span><\/span>, por ejemplo<\/span><\/span>: PRI con 99%; PAN 98%; PRD 93%; PVEM 46; PT 45%; MC 30%; NA 31%; y Morena 65%.<\/span><\/span> En el caso de Morena se entiende por dos razones: a) la personalizaci\u00f3n del partido pol\u00edtico en la figura de AMLO, y b) los ciudadanos ubican a esa agrupaci\u00f3n que a\u00fan no tiene registro como partido pol\u00edtico, como el \u00fanico ente de oposici\u00f3n que hay en el pa\u00eds.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Por otra parte, c<\/span><\/span>uando se le pregunt\u00f3 a los encuestados, la relaci\u00f3n <\/span><\/span>entre los <\/span><\/span>partido<\/span><\/span>s<\/span><\/span> pol\u00edtico<\/span><\/span>s<\/span><\/span> y <\/span><\/span>la <\/span><\/span>democracia, los resultados fueron: PRI 29<\/span><\/span>%<\/span><\/span>; PAN 19<\/span><\/span>%<\/span><\/span>; y PRD 11%<\/span><\/span>; <\/span><\/span>vaya paradoja, que el PRI sea el partido pol\u00edtico que para la percepci\u00f3n <\/span><\/span>social <\/span><\/span>es el partido m\u00e1s democr\u00e1tico<\/span><\/span>, y esto es por la crisis sist\u00e9mica de los otr<\/span><\/span>ora<\/span><\/span> partidos de oposici\u00f3n que entre sus demandas eran la democracia electoral; y eso ahora no es percibido como un elemento de su raz\u00f3n de ser en el sistema de partidos<\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/span>Por ejemplo, e<\/span><\/span>n Inglaterra se afirma que \u201cla calidad de la oposici\u00f3n, se refleja en la calidad del gobierno\u201d; pero lo que ya sucedi\u00f3 en M\u00e9xico, quiz\u00e1 a partir del a\u00f1o 2003 <\/span><\/span>donde <\/span><\/span>se perdi\u00f3 <\/span><\/span>el rumbo de <\/span><\/span>la transici\u00f3n, sino que lo que significa<\/span><\/span>ba<\/span><\/span> ser oposici\u00f3n<\/span><\/span> en este pa\u00eds<\/span><\/span>, y lo que observamos hoy, es que los referentes se invirtieron, los que en el pasado eran los autoritarios, hoy son los dem\u00f3cratas; y los dem\u00f3cratas de ayer, hoy no saben ni que son<\/span><\/span>\u2026<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

En otra vertiente, c<\/span><\/span>uando se les pregunt\u00f3 sobre por qu\u00e9 partido pol\u00edtico votar\u00eda el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o, y el resultado <\/span><\/span>fue<\/span><\/span> el siguiente: PRI 29%; PAN 15%; PRD 8%; Morena 3%; el resto no alcanzan el registro con la nueva reforma pol\u00edtico-electoral; PT 2%; PVEM 1%; MC 1% y NA 1%.<\/span><\/span> Esto se convertir\u00e1 en una limpia electoral de la vida p\u00fablica mexicana.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Finalmente, en este momento difuso, la obligaci\u00f3n del PAN y PRD es volver a reconstruirse como partidos pol\u00edticos de oposici\u00f3n y no de simulaci\u00f3n, imprimir una dosis de \u00e9tica pol\u00edtica y sobre todo de entender cu\u00e1l es la relaci\u00f3n con el gobierno, de respeto y no de sumisi\u00f3n; institucional y no de cinismo mercantil; sobre todo de rehacer su compromiso con la sociedad.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eduardo de la Torre Jaramillo Escenarios Justo dentro de un a\u00f1o tendremos otra elecci\u00f3n para elegir diputados federales; con todo lo que implica una elecci\u00f3n intermedia, particularmente con la evaluaci\u00f3n de la mitad del periodo  gubernamental; dicho sea de paso, en las \u00faltimas tres elecciones federales intermedias han presentado una baja votaci\u00f3n, esto por la desafecci\u00f3n y descontento por los resultados […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2447","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-sin-categoria"},"yoast_head":"\n2015 - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=2447\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2015 - 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