{"id":6921,"date":"2010-11-22T03:17:00","date_gmt":"2010-11-22T03:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lospoliticosveracruz.com.mx\/?p=6921"},"modified":"2014-10-09T03:42:25","modified_gmt":"2014-10-09T03:42:25","slug":"estadisticas-descuadradas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=6921","title":{"rendered":"Estad\u00edsticas descuadradas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight:bold;\">Guillermo Basurto Origel<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Paulatinamente, los \u00e1nimos y pasiones que despertaron en su momento las elecciones locales en Veracruz, se atemperan. Las aguas vuelven a su nivel. El recuento de da\u00f1os y ganancias, pr\u00e1cticamente ha concluido. Los dirigentes de los partidos pol\u00edticos han cuadrado sus cifras estad\u00edsticas, para convencer a sus correligionarios que la pasada campa\u00f1a fue un \u00e9xito para cada uno de sus institutos pol\u00edticos. Es decir, todos fueron ganadores. \u00bfTodos\u2026 han de preguntarse los candidatos perdedores? Pero eso es, harina de otro costal.<br \/>En el remanso de la historia cercana,  que tolera la vagancia con las cifras electorales, la cuesti\u00f3n de las alianzas comiciales, es un tema no perecedero. Su evaluaci\u00f3n objetiva, num\u00e9rica, es materia de an\u00e1lisis reiterativo y porqu\u00e9 no, un tanto obsesivo-compulsivo.<br \/>En los pasados comicios locales se presentaron al sufragio popular, tres alianzas partidarias, a saber: VERACRUZ PARA ADELANTE (PRI+PVEM+PVR); PARA CAMBIAR VERACRUZ (PRD+CONVERGENCIA+PT); VIVA VERACRUZ (PAN + PANAL).<br \/>La \u00fanica alianza que no present\u00f3 candidaturas comunes a las alcald\u00edas  en todos los municipios, fue la conformada por el PAN y el PANAL. Es decir, no se pusieron de acuerdo, o consideraron, que con sus propios recursos, pudieran en algunos municipios, ganar por s\u00ed mismos. Esta alianza parcial, permite en retrospectiva, evaluar la rentabilidad electoral de la alianza en su conjunto.<br \/>De los 212 municipios del estado de Veracruz, el PAN y el PANAL  fueron coaligados en 126, casi el 60% del total. En 86 municipios, optaron por ir cada uno por su lado. De los 126 municipios en que se dio la coalici\u00f3n, se obtuvo un \u00edndice de rentabilidad electoral del 41%. En los municipios donde no se dio la alianza, el PAN obtiene un \u00edndice de rentabilidad del 43% y el PANAL del 2%. En este sector, donde no se dieron las alianzas, el PAN propone candidaturas en los 86 municipios (100%), en tanto que el PANAL solo propone candidaturas en 47 (55%), es decir, antes de las elecciones, el PANAL se dio por muerto en 39 municipios.<br \/>Si se toma el dato de Votos Nulos Municipales, como el valor generado por desinformaci\u00f3n del elector, o como una expresi\u00f3n de inconformidad ciudadana, y se considera que el Partido que obtiene sufragios por debajo de los Votos Nulos, definitivamente no representa competencia en el mercado electoral, se observa que el PANAL en esas 47 candidaturas municipales que logra proponer en forma independiente, obtiene en 21 candidaturas (45%), votaci\u00f3n por debajo del Voto Nulo. Es decir, tiene una participaci\u00f3n meramente testimonial.<br \/>Sumando los resultados anteriormente expuestos, se puede concluir que la ALIANZA VIVA VERACRUZ, fue un mal negocio para el Partido Acci\u00f3n Nacional, toda vez que tuvo que compartir espacios de poder en los municipios con el PANAL, que le gener\u00f3 al primero mucha inestabilidad pol\u00edtica y que no se vio reflejado en votos aportados por su socio electoral.<br \/>Desde luego, los panegiristas de la alianza enquistados en el PANAL, pueden arg\u00fcir, tal vez con raz\u00f3n, que las estad\u00edsticas no cuadran ni reflejan el trabajo fino que aportaron. Bueno, si tienen algunos elementos de convicci\u00f3n, me gustar\u00eda conocerlos, porque las cifras matan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Guillermo Basurto Origel Paulatinamente, los \u00e1nimos y pasiones que despertaron en su momento las elecciones locales en Veracruz, se atemperan. Las aguas vuelven a su nivel. El recuento de da\u00f1os y ganancias, pr\u00e1cticamente ha concluido. Los dirigentes de los partidos pol\u00edticos han cuadrado sus cifras estad\u00edsticas, para convencer a sus correligionarios que la pasada campa\u00f1a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-6921","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-sin-categoria"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Estad\u00edsticas descuadradas - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=6921\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Estad\u00edsticas descuadradas - Los pol\u00edticos Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Guillermo Basurto Origel Paulatinamente, los \u00e1nimos y pasiones que despertaron en su momento las elecciones locales en Veracruz, se atemperan. Las aguas vuelven a su nivel. El recuento de da\u00f1os y ganancias, pr\u00e1cticamente ha concluido. 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