{"id":7215,"date":"2010-09-21T03:15:00","date_gmt":"2010-09-21T03:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lospoliticosveracruz.com.mx\/?p=7215"},"modified":"2014-10-09T03:42:46","modified_gmt":"2014-10-09T03:42:46","slug":"alerta-no-tan-temprana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lospoliticosveracruz.com\/?p=7215","title":{"rendered":"Alerta (no tan) temprana"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Rodrigo Vidal<\/strong><br \/><em>Zona de Tolerancia<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Bajo el t\u00edtulo \u201cPrimeras lecciones de Karl\u201d, el investigador de Ciencias Atmosf\u00e9ricas de la Universidad Veracruzana, Adalberto Tejeda Mart\u00ednez, hace algunas observaciones sobre la necesidad de contar con equipo para observar y medir los fen\u00f3menos atmosf\u00e9ricos en Veracruz y un sistema de alerta temprana.<br \/>\u201cModelar o simular en computadora y observar con precisi\u00f3n son entonces los caminos modernos. De ambos estamos escasos en Veracruz\u201d, precisa el autor del art\u00edculo.<br \/>Luego de hacer un reconocimiento al pron\u00f3stico del clima que se hizo desde el Gobierno del estado y la Gerencia Regional de la Conagua, agrega que \u201cno fueron suficientemente precisos\u201d los pron\u00f3sticos de avenidas y crecientes de los r\u00edos.<br \/> \u201cSin duda porque no se cuenta con redes observacionales en tiempo real ni con modelos computacionales adecuados a nuestras cuencas, ambas cosas tecnol\u00f3gicamente posibles y factibles. Entonces es claro que se requiere de un sistema de alerta temprana\u201d.<br \/>Record\u00f3 que \u201cdurante el sexenio estatal anterior desapareci\u00f3 el Servicio Climatol\u00f3gico y Meteorol\u00f3gico del Gobierno del estado, dependiente de la entonces Subsecretar\u00eda del Medio Ambiente\u201d, con todo y el equipo que se hab\u00eda instalado en las cuencas de los r\u00edos del norte de Veracruz, como consecuencia de las inundaciones de octubre de 1999.<br \/> \u201cDotar a Veracruz de una red hidrometeorol\u00f3gica suficiente y habilitar modelos de escala estatal (mesoescala, en jerga t\u00e9cnica) es m\u00e1s que urgente\u201d y lo mejor de todo, es posible pero \u00bfqu\u00e9 creen que haga falta?&#8230; Voluntad. O como Tejeda Mart\u00ednez lo dice sin \u201cpolitiquer\u00eda ni corrupci\u00f3n\u201d.<br \/>Adem\u00e1s, \u201cen materia de prevenci\u00f3n de riesgos no basta con los \u00f3rganos gubernamentales tradicionales. Se deben constituir concejos de expertos y concejos ciudadanos que venzan las inercias burocr\u00e1ticas. Instituciones como la Universidad Veracruzana (UV), el INECOL, el CIESAS y otras, tienen grupos de trabajo en materia de prevenci\u00f3n y evaluaci\u00f3n de riesgos; parece que todos ellos alejados de los tomadores de decisiones\u201d (pero cercanos a tomadores de pelo).<br \/>Como quien dice, falta tarea por hacer en esa materia. La mala noticia (o el pretexto) es que, la administraci\u00f3n estatal est\u00e1 por terminar y en este momento la prioridad es la ayuda a los miles de damnificados. Pero, bien pueden comenzar a tomar las acciones, tambi\u00e9n urgentes, para que Veracruz cuente en lo inmediato con un sistema de alerta temprana y \u201cestudios serios que normen el crecimiento de los asentamientos humanos\u201d.<br \/>\u00bfSe puede? \u00a1Claro que se puede! Se llama voluntad con otro ingrediente: eficiencia. Ambas cosas (la ayuda y el desarrollo del sistema), se pueden hacer. Si los pol\u00edticos no se quieren mover (del lugar de la tragedia) para salir en las fotos, pueden pedir ayuda a las instituciones que Adalberto Tejeda propone para la constituci\u00f3n de concejos de gente que sabe porque tiene formaci\u00f3n (no porque lleg\u00f3 al puesto por compadrazgo).<br \/>Pedimos que se note la voluntad de querer hacer las cosas, y la eficiencia para hacerlas bien y con prontitud. Las bases pueden quedar sentadas desde ahora.<br \/>Les dejo la advertencia del investigador: \u201cLos extremos meteorol\u00f3gicos de estos d\u00edas no necesariamente son producto del llamado cambio clim\u00e1tico: la variabilidad natural del clima junto con asentamientos en zonas vulnerables, son suficientes para causar desastres de esta envergadura. No imaginemos lo que vendr\u00e1 con un cambio clim\u00e1tico acentuado y una expansi\u00f3n urbana todav\u00eda m\u00e1s desordenada\u201d.<br \/>Comentarios, quejas y sugerencias, dirigir a: rodrigovp76@gmail.com y s\u00edganos en Twitter: @ZonaDtolerancia<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rodrigo VidalZona de Tolerancia Bajo el t\u00edtulo \u201cPrimeras lecciones de Karl\u201d, el investigador de Ciencias Atmosf\u00e9ricas de la Universidad Veracruzana, Adalberto Tejeda Mart\u00ednez, hace algunas observaciones sobre la necesidad de contar con equipo para observar y medir los fen\u00f3menos atmosf\u00e9ricos en Veracruz y un sistema de alerta temprana.\u201cModelar o simular en computadora y observar con [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-7215","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-sin-categoria"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - 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